The Soy 2020 stakeholders identified and prioritized driving forces and critical issues U.S. soy will face in the future, along with critical decisions that will have long-term influence. Honing in on specific actionable issues and decisions brought into focus the primary objective of Soy 2020. For the Soy 2020 process, enhancing the sustainability of the U.S. soybean industry in the future was the key focal issue.

An environmental scan was conducted to drill down into and better understand current and evolving information about the soybean value chain. Using this environmental scan as a guide, the Soy 2020 stakeholder team listed driving forces and critical factors in the environment that influence the soy value chain moving forward. The steering committee and advisory committee searched for major trends and trend breaks.

Next, the stakeholders categorized the driving forces and key factors on the basis of two criteria: the degree of importance for the success of the focal issue identified in Step 1, and the degree of uncertainty surrounding those trends identified in Step 2. The point was to identify the two or three driving forces/key factors that were most important and most uncertain.

The goal of Step 4 was to identify future scenarios whose differences mattered to decision-makers. If scenarios are to be useful learning tools, the lessons we learn must be based upon critical uncertainties basic to the focal point issue. In Step 4, a two dimensional matrix was constructed using the two most critical uncertainties. Each matrix quadrant became a potential scenario for the steering committee to play out. The steering committee broadly described each scenario as well as the characteristics that were discrete in each scenario.

Step 4 only created a skeleton of each scenario (future world). To be effective, scenarios have to enable planners to really “live in” each world. Thus, substantial and consistent content, based upon the scenario logics, must be created. Revisiting the driving forces and critical issues identified in Step 2 provided the content structure for fully developing each scenario. The environmental scan gave additional perspective. The steering committee then weaved the pieces together into a narrative story by answering questions like: “What happened that lead to this world?” “How did those events occur?” “How did this world get from here to there?” “What does the industry structure look like?” ”What about macro events, political or socio economic changes?” “What would have to happen to make the scenario plausible?”

Once the scenarios were developed in great detail, the steering committee returned to the original focal issue identified in Step 1 to play out the future. How does the decision look in each of the scenarios? What decisions or strategies are required for success in each world? Is the decision or strategy robust across all scenarios, or does it look good in only one or two scenarios? The outcome of Step 6 was the creation of strategies for each scenario and the development of common strategies that would be beneficial for all potential scenarios.

Since scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but rather preparing for multiple potential futures, it is crucial to identify and watch for signs which indicate the emergence of a future world. In this step, the team selected a few signposts to monitor that will signal which scenario begins to play out in the marketplace. By monitoring the leading indicators, adjusting scenarios on an ongoing basis, and having and adjusting strategies for each scenario on an ongoing basis, the industry can get the jump on the competition.

Once Soy 2020 scenarios and related strategies were developed and indicators and signposts are identified, tactical plans can begin to take shape. National organizations, state organizations and other soybean stakeholders can enter into their unique planning processes to develop the right tactics and action plans required to fully support the integrated Soy 2020 vision and strategies.